IMPROVEMENT OF FUTURE UNCERTAINTY IN STOCHASTIC PROGRAMMING MODELS - CASE OF ENERGY SYSTEM PLANNING PROBLEM -

Abstract

 This study developed the mathematical programming model that can describe future uncertainty in more faithfully than previous models, and analyzed empirically on energy system of Toyama Prefecture. This model output the optimal kind of energy facilities, construction time and scale utilizing the hydropower and geothermal power which Toyama Prefecture has abundantly. This model improved the objective function by 25.9 billion yen than that of previous model under the same conditions. In addition, it was cleared that the improvement is not facilities state variables but recourse variables. As a result of sensitivity analysis, it was cleared that the impacts ranked as demand of electricity and heat, fiscal resources, and each recourse unit.