PROPOSAL OF LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE SIMULATION METHOD WITH UNCERTAINTY IN EMISSIVITY OF UPWARD LONG WAVE RADIATION BASED ON STOCHASTIC PROECSS THEORY

Abstract

 In this article, we propose a theoretical framework that implements probabilistic process theory in the heat budget method in the process of simulating lake water temperature with uncertainty. As an example, water temperature is estimated with uncertainty in emissivity of upward long wave radiation. And, we explain the applicability of the simulated water temperature distribution. As a result, we showed the water temperature deterministically obtained is the mean value of the water temperature obtained stochastically.