DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE SCENARIOS DATABASE FOR JAPAN AND ANALYSIS OF THE SCENARIOS FOCUSING ENERGY AND CARBON EMISSION STRUCTURE

Abstract

 A new set of socioeconomic scenarios, “The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)”, has been published in 2017, which is used for cross-cutting research on climate change. Scenarios like the SSPs are also expected to be used for developing pathways to reduce greenhouse gasses emissions and climate change impact assessments in Japan, but the SSPs originally developed within the context of global changes may not well suite to country-specific situations and trends. In this study, 152 scenarios for Japan was compiled into a database by comprehensively collecting papers in previous researches, reports issued by the government or NGOs, and materials published in government committees. We discuss the the consistency and inconsistency between this database and the existing global SSPs taking Japan information to facilitate the development of Japan SSPs. As an example of the results, there were gaps between the two scenario groups in variables considered as major issues in Japan such as population and nuclear energy.