ESTIMATION OF FUTURE PROBABLE PRECIPITATION USING d4PDF AND ITS IMPACT ON WATER DRAINAGE PLANNING – CASE STUDY ON KINKI REGION –

Abstract

 Probable Precipitation is generally used to arrive at estimates for planning, design and flood management for sewer and river basin. It is an urgent task to devlop a flood control plan that take into consideration the impact of climate change. In this study, we calcualted probable maximum precipitaion for future climate in Kinki region from output rainfall of climate model using d4PDF which is massive ensemble climate prediction data. As a result, it was shown that it is necessary to use the rainfall suitable for the region or district, because the probable maximum precipitaion differs depending on the area. Current sewer drainage capacity will be insufficient for future rainfall for 10 years return period. However, the addition of green infrastructure such as wetlands reduces peak runoff and the runoff stormwater will be released by current drainage systems.