EVALUATION OF FUTURE DROUGHT RISK USING LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE PREDICTION DATA - CASE STUDY ON HYOGO PREFECTURE -

Abstract

 According to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report, it is highly probable that as global mean temperatures increase, there will be more frequent hot temperature extremes, and it is very likely that there will be more frequent extreme precipitation in the world. We evaluated future changes of the rainfall and temperature characteristics in Hyogo Prefecture usingn a large ensemble climate prediction dataset (d4PDF). We predictedthe frequency, magnitude, and duration of future droughts by a water budget equation model. As a result, it has become clear that, in the future climate, the number of days with extremely high temperatures and the number of days without rain will increase. Furthermore, it was shown that the frequency, scale and duration of drought risk will be higher in the future climate.