AN ESTIMATION OF PREFECTURAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR UTILIZING NATIONAL OFFICIAL STATISTICAL MICRODATA

Abstract

 The aim of this paper is to contribute to developing the prefectures' low-carbon action plan. Utilizing national official statistical microdata, greenhouse gas emissions in the household sector in each prefecture are estimated. These emissions reflected regional conditions, such as the number of households, household size, building type and the presence or absence of elderly people. The CO₂ emission reduction rate per household for each prefecture are also estimated when a uniform 40% reduction is imposed in each prefecture in 2030. As a result, the CO₂ emissions in 2030 increases compared to previous research by considering the presence of elderly people in the household. Furthermore, in prefectures where population decline and aging are progressing at the same time, the CO₂ emissions in 2030 in the BAU (business as usual) case decrease compared to 2015 due to the impact of population decline more than the impact of aging. It is suggested that these Prefectural governments should set higher CO₂ emission reduction targets in their lowcarbon action plan than the national government's reduction targets.