Evaluation of Economic Damage Cost about the Beach Disappearance in Niigata and Ishikawa Prefectures due to Climate Change

Abstract

 In recent years, at Chirihama in Ishikawa Prefecture, sandy beaches are retreating at a speed of about 1 m per year, and valuable tourism and recreational places are rapidly disappearing. In the near future, there is concern that sandy beaches will be lost further by the sea level rise due to climate change. Therefore, in this study, we acquire newer sandy beach recreation traffic data, consider new environmental quality variables such as weather in addition to the sandy beach area, and try to refine the estimation of global warming damage cost of precedent researches. Simultaneously, the contribution rate of the weather and sand erosion to the estimated damage cost are also derived. The main target area is sandy beaches in the coastal areas of Niigata and Ishikawa prefectures. For forecasting of climate change, we use the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with GCM / MIROC. As a main result of the thesis, the contribution rate suggested that the most of damage cost will brought from sea level rise and beach erosion, rather the increase in temperature directly reduces damage through visitor preference. On the other hand, it is suggested that it also works indirectly to increase the damage through sea level rise.