HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF SNOWY MOUNTAINOUS BASINS CONSIDERING ANNUAL WATER BALANCE AND AN ATTEMPT TO PREDICT RUNOFF IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE

Abstract

 The hydrological analysis is carried out for four snowy mountainous basins considering accuracy of the annual water balance of basin and flow duration curve. Furthermore, the runoff simulation for immediate future is carried out for the period of 2006–2020 with MIROC5, provided based on ISI-MIP, in accordance with the emissions scenario RCP8.5. The results show that, 1) the average of daily relative errors of hydrogprahs are around 30%, which show the approximately reproducion of runoff in consideration of snowy mountains basins, 2) the climate change in the immediate future could not be clarify detected by the simulation, however, the twelove seasons out of sixteen seasons of four basins are suggested trend of slightly, and 3) the climate change in the immediate future could not be clarify detected by the simulation, however, the twelve seasons out of sixteen seasons of four basins are predicted the observed runoff slightly by the hydrological simulation.