ANALYSIS AND ESTIMATION OF THE AGE-PERIOD-COHORT EFFECT ON CHANGES IN DRIVER'S LICENSE HOLDERS AND WEEKDAY DRIVERS

Abstract

 In this study, we used the Bayesian APC model to analyze the effects of age, period, and cohort on the change of driver’s license holders and weekday drivers by gender and age group from 1995 to 2015 in Japan. Additionally, based on the assessment of the factors of change classified into age, period, and cohort effect, we estimated the number of driver’s license holders and weekday drivers from 2020 to 2050, as well discussed the surrendering licenses and giving up driving in elderly age group. The results show that, 1) the new generation of the male group is trending to move away from licenses and driving, however the elderly female group is trending to increase the number of licenses and driving. 2) Comparing with the situation of 2015, the number of female license holders and drivers will be expected to be flat in 2050, however the number of male drivers will be expected to be halved in 2050.3) The elderly aged 75 and over group, whether male or female, is significantly tending to decrease the rate of surrendering licenses, as well the number of females of elderly aged 75 and over group who giving up driving will be trending stationary and closing to the number of males of giving up driving.