FACTORS AFFECTING THE INTENTION TO STRENGTHEN PROTECTION AGAINST INFECTION BASED ON INFORMATION ABOUT ITS PREDICTED SPREAD—A CASE STUDY OF COVID-19—

Abstract

 Since the pandemic of COVID-19, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for monitoring and predicting spread of infectious diseases has been intensively studied and its feasibility has been evaluated all over the world. The WBE has a potential to reduce the number of infections by early warning of its spread to enhance countermeasures at both public (e.g. lock-down and vaccination campaign) and individual (e.g. avoiding closed spaces, crowded places and close contact settings) levels. In this paper, to clarify the factors affecting the individual intentions to strengthen protection against infection based on information about its spread predicted by the WBE, questionnaire surveys were conducted for residents of Sendai and Osaka cities, Japan and the obtained data were analyzed by t-tests and the covariance structure model.

 As a result, the group that was provided with information on the predicted spread of infection, showing the increase of infections in the next week, was generally more willing to strengthen protection measures against COVID-19 than the group that was provided with the number of infections newly reported at the time of the survey. It was also revealed that those with high levels of trust in provided information and recommended countermeasures had high respect for social norms and firm intention to strengthen protection measures both directly and indirectly. In particular, if neither they nor their families are at a high risk of infection, reliable information on COVID-19 spread was suggested to enhance receivers’ respects for social norms and consequently motivate their intentions to strengthen protection measures.