THE MULTI-SCALE KAIN-FRITSCH CUMULUS SCHEME: SIMULATING TYPHOON-INDUCED HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE PHILIPPINES

Abstract

 The Kain-Fritsch (KF) is one of the most-used cumulus schemes in weather prediction models. An improved and scale-aware version of this scheme, called Multi-scale KF (MSKF), brings improvement to the simulated precipitation values which are often overestimated by KF. However, the applicability and performance of MSKF over the Philippines in simulating precipitation are yet to be verified. Herein, we examined these by simulating five typhoon-induced heavy precipitation events in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The results were compared with the results of three other cumulus schemes – KF, Grell-Freitas (GF), and Tiedtke. Based on the results, the MSKF is applicable for use in simulating heavy precipitations over the Philippines with performance comparable to other schemes. Additionally, MSKF has generally lower precipitation values than KF but does not always perform better. It is suggested to use MSKF like other cumulus schemes – as part of an ensemble forecast. Further research is called upon for the improvement of cumulus schemes.