COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT ESTIMATION FUNCTIONS FOR GLOBAL HEALTH ASSESSMENT CAUSED BY AMBIENT PM_2.5

Abstract

 Climate change mitigation is generally associated with several co-benefits, such as reducing health impacts due to air pollution. The number of excess mortality due to PM_2.5 has been calculated using a function called IER (Integrated Exposure-Response model). Recently, the GEMM (Global Exposure Mortality Model), an improved function of IER, has been developed and existing studies reported that there are considerable differences among their estimates. This study attempts to clarify the differences in the estimates of health impacts and co-benefits between these two functions using future scenarios of air pollutant emissions with different greenhouse gases emission pathways . The results indicated that the estimated number of PM_2.5-derived deaths from GEMM was about 1.7 times higher than that from IER regardless of the scenarios. Also, the estimated co-benefits, avoidable premature mortality, using GEMM exceeded IER in most regions, with a combined global increase of about 34%. The choice of function would have a significant impact on health estimates in future scenarios.