SCENARIOS PLANNING ON RESOURCE / WASTE FLOWS AND RESOURCE RECYCLING / WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN THE NEAR FUTURE

Abstract

Scenario planning, in which multiple future scenarios are described to prepare for an uncertain future, has become more active. In this paper, we established several different scenarios on resource / waste flows and resource recycling / waste management systems in the near future (10−20 years) in Japan. 1) We identified “international markets and trade scheme,” “resource prices,” and “technology” as driving forces that have important and uncertain impacts in the near future. 2) Based on these we established four future scenarios: “international circulation of recyclables,” “international competition for resources,” “high-tech regional material cycles,” and “organized regional material cycles.”