EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE PROBABILITY AND NATIONWIDE DAMAGE PROBABILITY MAP OF RAILWAY EMBANKMENTS

Abstract

 This paper proposes a method for calculating the earthquake damage probability of railway embankments based on seismic hazard information and a newly developed fragility curve estimation equation. Assuming that the fragility curve of the railway embankment is a cumulative lognormal distribution, a quasi-Monte Carlo simulation of permanent seismic displacements using the Newmark method was conducted to develop an estimating equation for the fragility curve. Using the proposed method, a nationwide earthquake damage probability map of railway embankments was created, and the seismic performance of railway embankments was probabilistically evaluated.