Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B1 (Hydraulic Engineering)
Online ISSN : 2185-467X
ISSN-L : 2185-467X
Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, JSCE, Vol.56
ENSEMBLE FLOOD PREDICTION BY CASCADING THE UNCERTAINTY FROM RAINFALL TO RUNOFF SHORT-TERM PREDICTION
Ratih Indri HAPSARISatoru OISHIKengo SUNADA
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2012 Volume 68 Issue 4 Pages I_139-I_144

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Abstract
Ensemble short-term rainfall-runoff prediction in urban river basin is presented. An ensemble rainfall prediction is built by perturbing initial condition of the extrapolation model. The five ensemble members are subsequently considered as uncertain input of the distributed hydrological model. GLUE method is used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model and quantify the uncertainty. Four sensitive parameters of rainfall-runoff model are considered. The set of behavioral simulations develop an ensemble of flood prediction. This approach allows a cascading of uncertainty from rainfall prediction to the flood prediction. The methodology is demonstrated throughout case studies in Kofu urban river basin, Japan. Having demonstrated the plausible results, this approach could serve as a reliable and effective method for estimating the uncertainty range of short-term prediction of runoff dynamics for operational flood disaster prevention in urban area.
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© 2012 Japan Society of Civil Engineers
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