FUTURE VARIATION IN IVER DISCHARGE IN THE ATBARA BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

Abstract

This study addressed potential climate change impacts within the Atbara Basin upstream of the Nile River. A Distributed Hydrological Model (DHM) was integrated with prediction scenarios from two General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The DHM model was validated using historical gauge records at Atbara Kilo3 station. Then, the model was forced with GCM outputs to investigate potential changes in the flood characteristics for the years 2011-2030. In terms of water resource management, the key conclusion was that natural stream flows of the Atbara Basin will not change significantly during the next 20 years, but that peak flow may increase from 2021 to 2025. The results suggest the need for careful flood management in the basin.