Abstract
Heavy precipitation induced by a typhoon often causes a severe disaster. In this study, we aim to propose a statistical method to project extreme precipitation caused by typhoons in the future. Our method is a combination of a stochastic typhoon model, statistical precipitation analysis, climate model outputs, and a physical basis for changes in precipitation. Our method was applied to the Kagami river basin of Kochi. While the number of typhoon approaching Kochi is projected to slightly decrease or unchanged, 2-day extreme precipitation induced by typhoon is projected to increase in the last twenty first century (2081-2100). The projected values are widely different according to a method to estimate changes in precipitation. We also estimated the future return period of heavy rainfall causing the largest recorded flood of the Kagami River.
