Abstract
Generally, the methods of predicting landslides can be divided into two types - statistical model and numerical model. Compared with the statistical model, the numerical model can provide more detail and precise result, but is difficult to employ on basin-scale because of time-consuming calculation. This paper proposed a novel method, which was based on numerical model and multiple regressions as well as using the slope unit as the slope-stability analysis target, to predict the landslides on a basin scale. This method used a new warning indicator, critical water content (Wcr), which is derived from numerical model and had a clear physical meaning. The new method also had great performance on calculation to predict the occurring time and the locations of landslides. The heavy rainfall disaster occurring in the Shizugawa basin in 2012, located in Uji, Kyoto, was simulated by the new method. The results showed that the new method can not only predict the landslides but also estimate the runoff of the slopes on a basin scale.
