FLOOD SCALE CHANGE ON YODOAWA RIVER CATCHMENT BY ISEWAN TYPHOON PSUEDO-GLOBAL WARMING EXPERIMENT

Abstract

This paper deals with a methodology to estimate the variations of flood hazard and risk due to a climate change. A pseudo global warming (pgw) experiment result of the Isewan Typhoon in 1959 is used as the rainfall input with a climate change effect to a distributed rainfall-runoff/flood inundation (DRR/FI) model. The simulated rainfalls of the control run (ctl) for the reproduction of the Isewan Typhoon as well as pgw experiment by JMA-NHM exhibit that, though the 48-hrs rainfall of ctl underestimates the observation, the maximum hourly rainfall of pgw becomes much higher than the observation. As the result, the simulated water level/discharge and inundation depth with pgw rainfall becomes all worse than those of the Isewan Typhoon.