Abstract
Trans-boundary river basins have been affected by flow variability caused by water use. Down-stream countries are often forced to face water shortage and sometimes dispute and compete with up-stream countries for shared water resources. To avoid future water conflict, the basin at risk should be identified by hydrological variability and institutional mechanisms which agreements contains. This paper investigates the potential risk for trans-boundary water conflict in the future. This risk can be estimated with two components. One is water stress level projected by a global water resource model and the other is vulnerability level defined by both trans-boundary freshwater agreement and river basin organization. As a result, the potential risk for trans-boundary water conflict in Africa and Central Asia is found.
