Abstract
This study investigated future changes of a certain atmospheric characteristic, which can cause localized heavy rainfall events during Baiu season along the Japan islands. We have focused on the atmospheric condition of July and August in 2013, which showed a specific location of the Pacific high with a certain flow of water vapor flux resulted in sequential heavy rainfalls along the island. Confirming that the atmospheric condition of the summer of 2013 can trigger heavy rainfall by analyzing the present and future climate simulation output from MRI-AGCM3.2S (20km resolution) and NHRCM5km, future changes of the atmospheric condition and the reliability of the changes were investigated using the ensemble future projections from MRI-AGCM3.2H (60km resolution). Based on our analysis with manual classification of the atmospheric condition, it is statistically significant that the atmospheric condition causing heavy rainfalls along the Sea of Japan side will be more frequent in the future climate.
