Abstract
Extrapolation is the essence of extreme value analysis which is applied to the design against the flood risk. In general we face to the obstacle that the finite temporal record length of heavy rainfall is not enough to the reliable estimation, thus as the matter of fact, the applicability of the theories of extreme value statistics to the actual observations of precipitation is uncertain, and we concern there may be discovered another biased story toward the extrapolating region of extreme heavy rainfall. The statistical method is proposed to examine the connection of quantile curves both in our observed record and in the extrapolating region, since the numerous ensembles output by d4PDF are available. The proposed method is demonstrated with an example.
