Abstract
To understand future inundation patterns due to climate change, temporal-spatial flood inundation in the Pampanga River basin was analyzed. Dynamic downscaling by the WRF model and bias correction using ground rainfall were applied to the results from MRI-AGCM3.2S with the RCP 8.5 scenario to prepare rainfall data in future climate. Inundation analysis with the RRI model shows that the area of inundation may increase by 20% in the future while the duration may shorten by 10%. The finding that wider inundation and a shorter duration of inundation are concurrently recognized suggests that the mean duration of the maximum inundation may be shorter in future climate due to the spatial-temporal trend of annual maximum rainfall. As further researches, a clarification of the interaction between wider inundation and a shorter duration of inundation by considering a temporal aspect such as the hazard evaluation value defined in this study, can contribute to more reliable assessment of future flood damage risk.
