Abstract
This research aims to estimate the future change of Baiu-heavy rainfall system in all Japan from the meso-β and macro scales. The high-resolution regional climate model, NHRCM05, is used for meso-β scale analysis of heavy rainfall events. A huge ensemble data, d4PDF_NHRCM20, is then used for macro scale analysis of atmospheric features prone to cause heavy rainfall.
As a result, the meso-β analysis shows 5% of statistically significant increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall in the area of Japan Sea side and Northern Japan and in early July, early and middle Augsut in future climate. On the other hand, from the results of macro scale analysis, we successfully picked up some atmospheric patterns as well as their significant increase of occurrence frequency. Also, the results indicate that some of new atmospheric patterns will appear in future change.
