RESEARCH ON EVALUATION OF THE WATER TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN SNOWY COLD RIVER BASED ON GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

Abstract

 As a basic study for formulating adaptation plans to climate change, meteorological and hydrological characteristics at the regional level in snowy cold regions were estimated by spatial interpolation method, using climate change data (MRI-NHRCM20) based on RCP emission scenario adopted by the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We quantitatively evaluated the future change of river water temperature, bias correcting and downscaling of climate change data, using the heat/water-balance model (LoHAS) and the tank model. The results of river water temperature simulation indicated that climate change is expected to raise river water temperature by approximately 6.6°C in May, also river water temperature area and period suitable for habitation of the landlocked masu salmon might decrease.