CLIMATOLOGICAL UNDERSTANDING ON UNCERTAINTY OF PRECIPITATION BY CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION IN VIETNAM

Abstract

 In this study, we analyzed and evaluated the methods to understand the uncertainty of the precipitation prediction by climate change among different precipitation models. Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (2075-2099) future climate characteristics in Vietnam has been chosen with four best-scored CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) on DIAS and used in-situ temperature and rainfall data for statistical bias correction and downscaling. The 25-year average daily temperature results of four GCMs demonstrated small variation in past and future climates while 25-year average future rainfall demonstrated a large variability among models. It is shown that the northern component of the Northeast Monsoon in the future would dominate the impact and consequently trigger the increased rainfall in central part of Vietnam and the pressure field in the future has an impact on the rainfall in Northern part of Vietnam.