ESTIMATION OF FUTURE FLOOD RISK THROUGHOUT JAPAN USING d4PDF RUNOFF DATA AND SOME ISSUES IN THE METHOD

Abstract

 This study estimated how flood risk will change in the future due to climate change throughout Japan using hydrodynamic model and d4PDF. This method is based on physical simulation and enables estimating change of CDF of river discharge non-parametrically, considering several SST change scenarios. As a result, it was shown that annual maximum discharge which occurs once in 100 years currently will occur more frequently in most part of Japan and flood exposure will increase. Along with that, some issues in conducting hydrological simulation all over Japan were revealed.