ACCURACY EVALUATION OF PREDICTING TIMES OF ISSUES OF THE TRAIN OPERATION CONTROL USING RAINFALL FORECAST INFORMATION

Abstract

 Railway operators enforce train operation control based on actual precipitation observed by rain gauges to ensure safe train operation in the times of heavy rainfall. Now by utilizing rainfall forecasting information they may make train operation safer. In this paper, we evaluate accuracy of predicting the time of exceeding the reference values of train operation control when using forecasting rainfall values by the translation model developed by Kyoto university and the high-resolution precipitation nowcast distributed by Japan Meteorological Agency. We evaluate the accuracy using the capturing ratio that indicate the proportion of cases where regulation is issued by forecasted values among cases where regulation is issued by actual values and the predictive ratio that indicate the proportion of cases where regulation is issued by actual values among cases where regulation is issued by forecasted values. As a result, it is found that, both of the capturing ratio and the predictive ratio of the translation model show higher values than those of the high-resolution precipitation nowcast.