PREDICTION OF FUTURE RAINFALL VARIATIONS IN THE KYUSHU ISLAND BASED ON LARGE ENSEMBLE EXPERIMENTS

Abstract

 We used a large scale ensemble climate prediction database d4PDF composed of numerous ensemble experiment data. By analyzing d4PDF, we attempted to verify the probabilistic evaluation of future prediction and the change of extreme weather which is low-frequency and local-scale events. We analyzed the data for 2,500 years of past experimental data and the data for 5,400 years of the 4°C rise experiment data and the data for 3,240 years of the 2°C rise experiment data in Kyushu Island. We confirmed that the 1 hour precipitation has a model bias. For the probability evaluation of torrential rain in entire Kyushu, we used the general polar of distribution. The conclusion is the intensity and frequency of torrential rain will both increase. In addition, about the change in torrential rain, there are regional differences, the increase in precipitation is relatively small in the northern Kyushu, but it is large in the southern Kyushu.