FATALITY ESTIMATION BY “FLORIS MODEL” FOR THE LARGE-SCALE FLOODS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE

Abstract

 In recent years, large-scale floods that caused many fatalities occur frequently in Japan. It is necessary to grasp accurate flood risk under future climate for considering adaptation plan. The LIFESim model which estimate the number of fatalities by water depth in flooded area is widely used in Japan. However, the “Floris model” which estimate by not only water depth but fluid force, water velocity and water rise rate has been used for taking measures on climate change adaptation in the Netherlands.

 In this study, we estimated the number of fatalities by LIFESim model and “Floris model” for the heavy floods under historical and +4K future climate based on the large ensemble dataset (d4PDF) and clarified the differences of the numbers of fatalities by each models.