DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTRIBUTION PREDICTION MODEL OF Oncorhynchus masou ishikawae ACCORDING TO WATER TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT SABA RIVER AND OZE RIVER USING ENVIRONMENTAL DNA

Abstract

 In this study, we constructed a distribution prediction model of Oncorhynchus masou ishikawae. We tried to predict the changes in the distribution area at the time of water temperature change at Saba river and Oze river in Chugoku district using the summer distribution information obtained by environmental DNA analysis and the water temperature data obtained from water temperature logs. The results of the distribution prediction model showed that the average water temperature in summer daytimes was a major factor influencing the distribution of this species; the results of scenario analysis at the time of water temperature fluctuation siggest that the potential habitat will decrease significantly as the water temperature rises and will increase significantly as the water temperature decreases.