DEVELOPMENT OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL FOR SLOPE FAILURE AND ESTIMATION OF DRIFTWOODS GENERATION IN MARUMORI TOWN DUE TO THE EAST JAPAN TYPHOON 2019

Abstract

 In this paper, we attempted to assess courses of huge slope failures and driftwoods generation in Marumori area in Miyagi prefecture, Japan due to the heavy rain event in the East Japan Typhoon 2019. Firstly, field survey on the damage by the disaster was conducted in Marumori area after the typhoon. Very huge damages due to effluence of a large amount of sediments and driftwoods were observed in the overall area. Next, logistic regression model optimized for slope failures due to the Northern Kyushu Heavy Rain 2017 considering geological, geographical, vegetation, and precipitation conditions was applied for the disaster in Marumori area, and also the model was improved to optimize for it. As a result, it is clarified that geological condition is the most significant factor, and the scale of the present sediments and driftwoods disaster can be considered as same as the heavy rain in 2017 which is the largest driftwoods disaster of recent years.