EVALUATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL RISK OF TYPHOON HAGIBIS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON TRACK

Abstract

 This research assessed the heavy rainfall risk of Typhoon Hagibis (2019) from the view point of a typhoon track. A typhoon track data, an ensemble forecast experiment and an large ensemble climate dataset were used in order to grasp statistical relationships between typhoon track and rainfall volume, potential rainfall volume of Typhoon Hagibis and influence of climate change to rainfall, respectively. These three data enabled to estimate regions where the influence of typhoon track shifting is larger and influence of climate change. Heavier rainfall tends to occur in some areas in case of typhoons passed through further east of Typhoon Hagibis. Typhoon induced rainfall volumes increase statistically under warmer climate condition regardless of typhoon track. The rainfall volumes due to typhoons which are similar tracks of Typhoon Hagibis and that of due to typhoons which 2 degree shifted in the longitudinal direction under warmer climate are statistically almost same.