FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTION OF MEGACITIES CONSIDERING URBANIZATION SCENARIOS

Abstract

 Urbanization is an essential, yet underrepresented, parameter when investigating futuristic climate change of cities. The change in 2 m air temperature in August between the 2006–2015 period and the 2046–2055 period for 33 megacities and 10 emerging megacities under RCP8.5 emission forcing and SSP3 was projected with the consideration of both global climate change (using pseudo-global warming method) and local urbanization (using global urban sprawling map, distributed urban morphological parameters, and hourly anthropogenic heat emission dataset).

 In newly urbanized area, the urbanization effect will be significant, accounting for (13.5 ± 5.9) % of the total temperature change. In existing urban areas, the effect will vary depending on the current degree of urbanization. When viewed over a regional scale, the effect will be rather insignificant. It was observed in some cities that urbanization effect originating from urban area was advected by the wind to non-urban area located kilometers downwind.