FUTURE CHANGES IN FORMATION OF HEAVY RAINFALLS IN GIFU PREFECTURE USING LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS d4PDF

Abstract

 In this study, future changes in formation of heavy rainfalls (1 in 100 year probability rainfalls) in Gifu Prefecture, Japan, are compared using sea-level pressure distributions derived from the database called d4PDF including the 4-K warming future climate experiments (5,400 years) and historical climate experiments (3,000 years). The sea-level pressure patterns in the heavy rainfall events are classified into three categories: (A) frontal system I, (B) frontal system II, (C) low pressure system I and (D) low pressure system II. The averaged daily rainfalls in the future climate are greater in any category than those in the historical climate. It is considered that the heavy rainfalls in the future climate in Type A and Type D are intensified by the reinforcement of southwestern typhoons and the slowdown of landfalling typhoons, respectively.