CONSIDERATION ON UTILITY OF STOCHASTIC STORM SURGE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCEDURE FOR REDUCING CALCULATION LOAD

Abstract

 The non-life insurance industry requires sophisticated storm surge risk assessment for risk management. In the United States, a stochastic storm surge risk assessment has been performed using a method with low calculation load called JPM-OS, but the calculation accuracy is lower than that of conventional method JPM. In the storm surge risk assessment procedure with low calculation load proposed by past study, which can consider the uncertainty of astronomical tide level, the consideration on the computational accuracy is insufficient.

 Therefore, in this study, utility of the proposed procedure in previous study is confirmed by applying it to the Tokyo Bay where assets are accumulated and considering whether the calculation accuracy can be maintained by reducing the calculation load.