REAL-TIME RIVER FlOOD FORECASTING UTILIZING BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL

Abstract

 In this study, we developed a real-time river flood forecasting method about 1 day ahead utilizing basin-average rainfall in order to use for making decision to refuge a railway vehicle detained at a rolling stock depot before flooding occurs. In this method, the basin-average rainfall at the nearest water level observation station installed in the river that causes flooding to the rolling stock depot is used. It is evaluated that river flooding may occur when the basin-average rainfall exceeds the design rainfall. In 3 out of 5 cases in which the river water level exceeded the designed high water level, this method could be predicted more than one day before the river water level reached the designed high water level. Furthermore, the river water level exceeded the designed high water level in 4 of the 11 cases in which the predicted value of the basin-average rainfall exceeded the design rainfall. Therefore, it was decided that this method would be used as a decision criterion for refuging a railway vehicle from a rolling stock depot.