EVALUATING EFFECTS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE ON STABILITY OF RAIL TRANSPORT

Abstract

 In recent years unusually heavy rainfall has been occurring with greater frequency and intensity throughout Japan, phenomena considered to be a result of climate change caused by the emission of greenhouse gases. It is thus necessary to evaluate the degree of such impact on stability of rail transpotation that may also be affected by such phenomena, and study possible countermeasures to incorporate into train operating procedures.Therefore, the purpose of this study is to understand the effects of climate change in terms of stability in railway transportation in times of heavy rainfall. The results of an experiment (NHRCM02) conducted by the Meteorological Agency’s research institute to obtain projections of Japan’s climate around the end of the 21st century based on the RCP8.5 scenario for greenhouse gas emission was used in the analysis. According to a quantitative study of railway lines in Japan’s Tōhoku region, the stability of railway transportation will suffer, due to higher frequency of heavy rainfall at greater intensity by the end of the 21st century and the amount of time required for stopping operation is expected to increase by 3.5 to 6.5 times; that is, an average of 470% over current time lengths.