STUDY ON PROBABILISTIC METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE VOLUME OF SEDIMENT YIELD AND ITS DEPOSITION AREA BY USING DATA OF JULY 2018 SEDIMENT DISASTER IN HIROSHIMA PREFECTURE

Abstract

 In this study, we developed a ordinal logistic regression model that predicts each probability of categories on sediment yield scale expressed in four stages by analyzing data-set, which was created based on data of July 2018 sediment disaster in the southern part of Hiroshima prefecture, topographic data and XRAIN data relating to the disaster in the same mesh size as XRAIN. In addition, we developed a simple sediment transport model to predict the sedimentation area. By using both models, a multi-case simulation was applied to predict the probability of sedimentation. The special tendency of sediment run-off was agreed with the actual disaster situation.