PSEUDO-GLOBAL WARMING TRACK ENSEMBLE EXPERIMENTS ON HEAVY RAINFALL INDUCED BY TYPHOON HAGIBIS (2019)

Abstract

 Typhoon Hagibis (2019) caused severe rainfall damage mainly in the Kanto region. It is necessary to evaluate the maximum possible rainfall for the Kinki and Chubu areas which have been directly unaffected by Hagibis, with taking into account both the effects of worst track and global warming. In this study, we perform pseudo-global warming track ensemble experiments using a high-resolution typhoon model to evaluate the maximum possible rainfall under the worst-track scenario and under the future global warming scenario (during 2080-2099 in RCP8.5). The future changes of the maximum possible rainfall are +200 mm in the Kii Peninsula and +50－150 mm in the upstream areas of the three major rivers in the Chubu area. The future changes in the maximum possible rainfall due to global warming is comparable to the difference of accumulated rainfall caused by an east-west deviation of about ±0.5° from the worst-case track.