TIME-SEAMLESS FUTURE CHANGE ANALYSIS ON BAIU RAINFALL AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING

Abstract

 With the growing importance of taking stepwise adaptation measures to climate change, we conducted a future change analysis of rainfall during the Baiu season using 150-year continuous run. We analyzed the future changes of baiu frontal zones using average daily rainfall and baiu extreme rainfall using hourly rainfall. As a result, the rainfall area gradually moves northward in both the frontal zone and location of the extreme rainfall events. However, there were also regions that contained periods when rainfall was lower than the historical average while there was a marked tendency for rainfall to increase in northern Japan. This reasons are discussed in terms of the influence of sea surface temperatures and typhoons. Furthermore, we showed that the duration of extreme rainfall events will gradually increase in the future.