EVALUATING EFFECTS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CAUSED BY CLIMATE CHANGE ON STABILITY OF RAIL TRANSPORT ―ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE RAILWAY LINES―

Abstract

 Railway operators enforce train operation control such as suspended operations based on precipitation observed by rain gauges, to ensure the safety of trains during heavy rains. Rainfall intensity and frequency are expected to increase in the future with the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, and it is expected that stability in railway transportation will face a decline due to such safety procedures. This study evaluated regional differences in the stability in railway transport due to such precipitation change along four railway lines by calculating the changes in frequency and duration of suspended operations at present and at the end of the 21st century. Results showed that at the end of the 21st century, frequency of suspended operations on lines in the Tōhoku region would be 3.1 times the current average, and 1.4 times the current average on lines in the Kantō region, and duration of operation suspensions being 4.2 times in the Tōhoku region and 2.1 times in the Kantō region. In this way, it was shown that the frequency and duration of suspended operations increased, and that the degree of increase was greater in the Tōhoku region than in the Kantō region.