EXAMMINATION OF PREDICTING METHOD OF THE LOCATION AND OCCURRENCE TIME OF ICE JAM BASED ON ICE MELTING PROCESS

Abstract

 Ice jam causes a sudden rise in water level and an accident involving the flowing river ice, which is one of the problems in the maintenance of the frozen river.We aim to develop methods for predicting the location and occurance time of ice jam to reduce the damage caused by ice jam. From the viewpoint of practical use, it is necessary to examine series of prediction methods under appropriate procedure and conditions. We organized the examination procedure considering a series of processes from the start of deicing of river ice to its occurrence, and the flow, destruction, and deposition, and examined its applicability. We examined prediction process and results from the viewpoints of (1) appropriate pre-extraction of areas where ice jam will occur in each river channel, (2) appropriate pre-prediction of the start time of deicing, and (3) appropriate pre-prediction of the time when the risk of ice jam occurrence increases.