CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON THE PROBABILLITY OF FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION DURING AN EXTREME FLOOD -A CASE STUDY IN THE SHIMOUKE AND MATSUBARA DAMS, JAPAN-

Abstract

 This study aims to estimate the impact of climate change on the probability of flood control operation during an extreme flood (hereafter, extreme flood operation) using simple runoff model and dam operation model which is developed based on actual dam operation rule with d4PDF in Shimouke Dam, in which the operation has been carried out in July 2020, and Matsubara Dam, which is located directly below the Shimouke Dam as research fields. As the result, it was revealed that the frequency of extreme flood operation by the Shimouke Dam in the future might increase relative to the present with the increase of flood discharge. On the other hand, the frequency of the operation of the Matsubara Dam in the future might be almost same as the present. Therefore, it was revealed that the connected two dams were able to operate effectively in order to reduce damage to the downstream area of the dams.