CLASSIFICATION OF FUTURE RAINFALL BASED ON PLUVIAL FLOOD ANALYSIS FROM d4PDF

Abstract

 Future projections, such as d4PDF which is massive ensemble climate prediction data, have uncertainty, but conventional planning methods which produce planned rainfall cannot evaluate the uncertainty. In order to identify future rainfall events that cause damage beyond the planned scale, we conduct pluvial flood simulation using rainfall events generated by both the "conventional planning method" and the "uncertainty-based planning method". Based on the comparison of the maximum waterlogged amount, the future rainfall is categorized and the rainfall patterns that require attention is identified. Furthermore, there is a high correlation between the maximum rainfall for 3-hour and the maximum waterlogging, and it is shown that monitoring the 3-hour maximum rainfall is important for pluvial flood.