PRIOR RELEASE OF MULTI-PURPOSE RESERVOIR BASED ON ENSEMBLE RAINFALL FORECAST AND ITS ERROR CHARACTERISTICS

Abstract

 A method for prior release of a multi-purpose reservoir was developed considering operational medium-range ensemble rainfall forecast and its error characteristics. Ensemble members which to be focused in decision making for prior release were determined based on an accuracy analysis on each order of ensemble member so as to balance effects in flood management and storage recovery. The proposed method was applied to a hypotethical reservoir in Japan, demonstrating its potential effectiveness to improve prior release operation.