INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LIFE STAGE IN THE QUANTITATIVE RISK PREDICTION OF GUERRILLA HEAVY RAINFALL

Abstract

 Localized severe heavy rainfalls have frequently occurred in Japan. For reducing the damages by disasters, it is necessary to predict the risk of GHR. Kimand Nakakita(2021) developed the quantitative risk prediction method by considering the relationship between the predicted risk level and the variables based on the stages, which are defined by just time. In time stages, the development of GHR was tracked at 5-minute intervals. However, the length of the whole life of GHR depends on the cases, for example, the second 5-minute interval does not necessarily have the same meaning in the development of GHR for different cases. If we consider the development of GHR based on the statistical and physical aspect, we should make more precise predictions. Therefore, this research aims to show the potentiality of the quantitative risk prediction.