2022 Volume 78 Issue 2 Pages I_559-I_564
In this study, we developed a unit cost model of structural river management, reflecting differences in economic development and construction cost factors in different regions. Specifically, by performing multivariate analysis of multiple construction cost factors such as worker wages and location and the cost of structural river management projects around the world, we developed a model that represents the unit cost of structural river management using two factors: the hourly wage of skilled workers and the difference in construction costs among regions (location factors). The developed model explained approximately 82% of the reported unit cost of river management. The model reduced the cost estimation error by 51% on average compared to the simple methods using GDP. Especially in high-income countries, the estimated unit cost of structural river management was close to the actual value. The model and the SSP scenario were used to project the unit cost of structural river management in each country, and the results showed that the unit cost of structural river management in Japan in 2100 was estimated to be more than eight times higher than in 2020, depending on the scenario.
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