FUTURE PROJECTION OF WATER RESOURCES OVER JAPAN USING 150-YEAR CONTINUOUS RUN

Abstract

 This study projects long-term change in water resources over Japan using the 150-year continuous run of the Meteorological Research Institute's climate model (MRI-AGCM3.2S). This study assessed which regions will experience tight water resources by comparing the daily supply and demand of water under the future climate due to the effects of changes in the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall and continuous rainfall-free conditions caused by climate change. Then, the results revealed that the areas where water resources are expected to be particularly tight are the Tokachi Plain, the Pacific Ocean side from Chiba to Fukushima prefectures, the Matsumoto Basin, the central Kinki region, the Seto Inland Sea coast, and the Kyushu-Okinawa region. There are areas where the use of water resources become tightened although the annual water resource availability increases. That is because the increased amount of water resources can’t be used depending on the water supply-demand balance during the period of increase.