2022 Volume 78 Issue 2 Pages I_91-I_96
The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of slope disasters throughout the year in the heavy snowfall region of Hokkaido, taking into account rainfall and snowmelt, based on the uncertainty of climate change. The Nakayama and Nissho Passes, which are the subjects of this study, are strategic transportation points in Hokkaido, and a road closure due to slope disaster will have a great impact on logistics. In this study, d4PDF ensemble data of rainfall and temperature were used to estimate the slope disaster risk in the Nakayama and Nissho Passes. In addition to the topography, geology, and ground conditions of the target areas, hydrological conditions such as rainfall and snowmelt were taken into consideration, and appropriate corrections were made to the d4PDF to evaluate the risk level. As a result, it was shown that the frequency of slope disasters increased significantly due to changes in the hydrological environment because of the effects climate change, and that some areas show a significant increase due to snowmelt as well as much rain, while other areas show a significant increase due to heavy rain during the summer depending on regional characteristics.
PROCEEDINGS OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING
